Where the market stands today

Four independent reads of the same market — sentiment, volatility, trend, and breadth — each shown on its own, then combined into one 1–10 number by a formula simple enough to print below. No forecasts: this page describes measured conditions, and it changes as they do.

Today: 8/10 — Risk-on

Sentiment data through 2026-08-18; trend and breadth read each series’ own latest bar. The score reads risk appetite: high means calm, trending, broad markets; low means stressed, downtrending, narrow ones. It is a description, not a recommendation — note that the contrarian reading of sentiment runs the other way, which is why each component below also carries its own label.

ComponentToday’s readingScore (0–1)
Fear & Greed59Greed (contrarian read: trim)0.59
Volatility (VIX)15.7calm0.72
S&P 500 regimeUptrendrisk-on1.00
Sector breadth7 of 11 sectors in a bullish 50/200-day state0.64

A missing feed is excluded from the average, never scored as neutral — the same abstain-don’t-substitute rule as everything else on this site.

Sector rotation

The 11 SPDR sector ETFs, native-USD trailing returns, leaders first. “Trend” is each ETF’s own 50/200-day moving-average state — the breadth component above is the share of these that read bullish.

SectorETF1w1m3mTrend
EnergyXLE+4.0%+8.5%+3.3%bullish
Information TechnologyXLK+2.1%+8.4%+9.2%bullish
IndustrialsXLI+0.9%+3.9%+9.1%bullish
Health CareXLV-0.8%+3.7%+14.6%bullish
MaterialsXLB-1.8%+3.4%+4.0%bullish
FinancialsXLF-0.4%+2.4%+11.3%bullish
Consumer DiscretionaryXLY-2.4%+1.1%+0.4%mixed
Communication ServicesXLC-0.9%+0.1%-5.3%mixed
Consumer StaplesXLP-0.3%-0.6%-1.4%bullish
Real EstateXLRE+1.0%-1.3%+2.5%mixed
UtilitiesXLU+2.4%-2.2%+0.6%mixed

How the score is computed

Each read maps to 0–1: Fear & Greed is the index divided by 100; VIX scores 1.0 at 10 or below and 0.0 at 30 or above, linear between; the S&P regime scores Uptrend 1.0, Recovering 0.65, Weakening 0.35, Downtrend 0.0 (price and 50/200-day averages on the index’s own currency); breadth is the share of sector ETFs in a bullish state. The composite is the plain average of whichever components have data, scaled to 1–10. That’s the whole formula — if you disagree with a weighting, you can see exactly what to disagree with.

What it is not: a timing signal. A high score describes calm — markets have spent years at 8 — and a low one describes stress that has sometimes been the best moment to invest of a decade. If you want to know what acting on any rule would have done, test it on real prices.

The link always shows the current reading, not a snapshot.

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