Nicholas Taylor’s disclosed stock trades — and what copying them returned

Nicholas Taylor (House) has disclosed 218 stock trades under the STOCK Act, from Feb 15, 2019 to Dec 26, 202226 buys and 192 sells, read straight from the official filings. The median gap between a trade and the public finding out was 21 days — which is why every number below starts at the disclosure date, the earliest day anyone could actually have copied a trade.

What copying every disclosed buy would have returned

Our engine bought at the first opening price after each of Nicholas Taylor’s disclosed purchases became public, held until the matching sale was disclosed, and marked the book against simply holding the S&P 500 over the same window (Feb 19, 2019Aug 11, 2026). Fees on, position sizes equal — a filing never discloses the real amount, only a band.

Copy-return, total+208.3%
S&P 500 over the same window+210.3%
Difference-2.0%
Annualized over 7.5 years+16.3% vs +16.4% -0.1% a year against the index
Deepest fall along the way-33.9%
Positions that closed ahead70%
Disclosed buys / actually copied26 / 20

Read the fill count before the return: a figure built on a handful of copied positions is an anecdote, whatever it says. And a copy-return is not Nicholas Taylor’s own return — the disclosure lag means a copier never got their entry price.

Most-traded tickers

CELG (7) · REGN (4) · VZ (4) · PYPL (4) · GRUB (4) · CVX (3) · DIS (3) · IBDRY (3) · RHT (3) · PG (3)

Recent filings

The latest 50 disclosed trades, newest filing first. Both dates are shown because the gap between them is the whole story.

TickerTypeTradedDisclosedLagAmount band
SSLTYSellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$15,001 - $50,000
BMYPartial sellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$100,001 - $250,000
ZIMVSellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$1,001 - $15,000
MCOSellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$250,001 - $500,000
LLYPartial sellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$1,000,001 - $5,000,000
ZBHSellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$100,001 - $250,000
OXYSellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$1,001 - $15,000
XOMPartial sellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$1,000,001 - $5,000,000
CVXPartial sellNov 28, 2022Dec 26, 202228d$500,001 - $1,000,000
DISSellMar 13, 2020Jun 10, 202089d$250,001 - $500,000
LLYSellMar 13, 2020Jun 10, 202089d$500,001 - $1,000,000
WMTSellMar 17, 2020Apr 13, 202027d$250,001 - $500,000
GPCSellMar 17, 2020Apr 13, 202027d$50,001 - $100,000
MCDSellMar 17, 2020Apr 13, 202027d$250,001 - $500,000
GESellMar 17, 2020Apr 13, 202027d$15,001 - $50,000
WPPSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
VMWSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
REGNSellMar 7, 2019Apr 15, 201939d$1,001 - $15,000
PNCSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
DCMSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
NSCSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
NTTSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
NHISellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
NGGSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
MRKSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
MKCSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
ISUZYBuyMar 13, 2019Apr 15, 201933d$1,001 - $15,000
IBDRYSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
FCPTSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
FNFSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
CNSLSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
CINFSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
SCHWSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
CMSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
BRSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
BRK.BSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
BLXSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
ZTSSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
WELLSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
DISSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
VZSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
VTRSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
TFXSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
TRGPSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
STESellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
SSEZYSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
SNYSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$15,001 - $50,000
RPMSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
RHTSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000
PGSellMar 25, 2019Apr 15, 201921d$1,001 - $15,000

Full history, sorting and the CSV export live in Pulse. Open Congress in Pulse.

Hear about the next filing the day it lands

A filing is only useful in the days after it appears — exactly when nobody is watching the disclosure sites. Follow Nicholas Taylor in Pulse and you get an email as soon as their next report is parsed: the trades in it, both dates, and how long they sat on it.

See plans All members and how the ranking works

Entries are at the first open AFTER the disclosure date — the earliest any copier could act. The member's own entry was up to 45 days earlier. Disclosed amounts are bands, not sizes; every position is sized at your chosen % of portfolio, which is not how the member sized it. Option purchases are copied as the underlying shares. A filing discloses no strike and no expiry, so an option cannot be mirrored — buying the stock is the closest a reader could get. It is 1.6% of all disclosed buys, but for some members it is a quarter to a half of everything they file, so their figure describes copying the filing rather than what the position itself did. Dividends are treated as reinvested (adjusted closes). Fees and taxes are not modeled. Positions are sized from equity at the time of each entry, so gains compound into later position sizes and most of the account sits in cash between filings. Read the drawdown next to the exposure figures: a portfolio that is mostly cash shows a small whole-portfolio drawdown even when its holdings fell hard. Absolute returns are model outputs, not achievable returns. Past disclosures are no promise of future filings — members stop trading, leave office, or file late in batches.