Brad Ashford’s disclosed stock trades, and what copying them returned

DDemocrat · NE · House

Every trade Brad Ashford has disclosed under the STOCK Act, read straight from the official filings.

27Disclosed trades
7Buys
20Sells
14dMedian disclosure lag

Mar 24, 2015 – Dec 20, 2016. You cannot trade when they traded, so every number below starts at the disclosure date, the earliest anyone could have copied it.

Before you scroll: did copying Brad Ashford actually beat the S&P 500?

Buying at the first open after each filing went public, the earliest a copier could act.

Run it yourself

The figures above copy every disclosed buy, sized between 1% and 20% of the account by how big that filing was for them. Change the rules and see what happens.

These are the ranking’s own rules, so an untouched run reproduces the figures above. Change one and the run is yours. One member at a time; combining several into a basket is part of Pulse.

Think you can do better?

Copying Brad Ashford compounded at +14.0% a year, against +14.0% a year for the S&P 500 over the same trades, 0.0 points a year ahead. Beat it with any strategy, on any ticker.

Try to beat Ashford

Most-traded tickers

APA (7) · BRK.B (6) · MMM (2) · UNP (2) · DRYS (1) · MSB (1) · MDT (1) · PFE (1) · MDLZ (1) · DIS (1)

Brad Ashford

Backtest in Pulse
Disclosures
27
Buys
7
Sells
20
Last filing
Dec 20, 2016
Copying every disclosed buy, 1–20% per trade by their own conviction, idle cash in SPY
Return/yrvs S&P/yrCopiedYears
Copying the filings+14.0%+0.0%5/711.5
What they got+13.7%+0.0%5/711.6
Worst fall 33.7% · win rate 80%. Both rows use the same 1% sizing and buy at the day’s open, only the entry date differs. Their real position sizes are never disclosed, only bands, so “what they got” is their timing, not their account.
The latest 10 disclosed trades, newest filing first, amounts are the statutory bands, not exact sizes
TickerSideOwnerAmountTradedDisclosedLag
APASellJT$1,001 - $15,000Nov 28, 2016Dec 20, 201622d
DRYSBuySelf$1,001 - $15,000Dec 6, 2016Dec 20, 201614d
MSBBuyDC$1,001 - $15,000Nov 22, 2016Dec 5, 201613d
MDTSellSP$1,001 - $15,000Nov 28, 2016Dec 5, 20167d
PFESellSP$1,001 - $15,000Nov 28, 2016Dec 5, 20167d
APASellJT$1,001 - $15,000Mar 28, 2016Apr 12, 201615d
MMMSellSP$15,001 - $50,000Mar 29, 2016Apr 12, 201614d
APASellSP$15,001 - $50,000Mar 29, 2016Apr 12, 201614d
APASellSP$1,001 - $15,000Jan 15, 2016Feb 1, 201617d
BRK.BSellSP$15,001 - $50,000Jan 15, 2016Feb 1, 201617d
17 earlier filings , the full history, sorting, backtests and the CSV export are part of Pulse.See plans

This page updates as Brad Ashford files, a shared link always shows the current record, not a snapshot.

Hear about the next filing the day it lands

A filing is only useful in the days after it appears, exactly when nobody is watching the disclosure sites. Follow Brad Ashford in Pulse and you get an email as soon as their next report is parsed: the trades in it, both dates, and how long they sat on it.

See plans All members and how the ranking works

Entries are at the first open AFTER the disclosure date, the earliest any copier could act. The member's own entry was up to 45 days earlier. Disclosed amounts are bands, not sizes. Conviction sizing reads only where a band RANKS against the member's own earlier filings (a bigger-than-usual one takes a bigger slice of your portfolio, up to the ceiling you chose), so the run follows how hard they went in relative to themselves, never the dollars they actually committed or what those dollars were to them. Option purchases are copied as the underlying shares. A filing discloses no strike and no expiry, so an option cannot be mirrored; buying the stock is the closest a reader could get. It is 1.6% of all disclosed buys, but for some members it is a quarter to a half of everything they file, so their figure describes copying the filing rather than what the position itself did. Dividends are treated as reinvested (adjusted closes). Fees and taxes are not modeled. Positions are sized from equity at the time of each entry, so gains compound into later position sizes and only part of the account is in the member's positions at any time, the rest tracking the S&P 500. Read the drawdown next to the exposure figures: a portfolio holding only part of its equity in those positions shows a small whole-portfolio drawdown even when its holdings fell hard. Absolute returns are model outputs, not achievable returns. Past disclosures are no promise of future filings: members stop trading, leave office, or file late in batches.